4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,483 sqft ·
Built 2024
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 170 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,873/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,012
Tax + insurance
−$322
HOA
−$85
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$393
Net cashflow
$61/mo
Annual
$733/yr
Cap rate
6.67%
Cash-on-cash
1.36%
DSCR
1.06
1% rule
0.97%
Cash to close
$54,040
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $193k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($733/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (2.9% below list).
It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $170k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
Somerset ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #417 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 324 active listings in the ZIP; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QKJBJVC5PJHDZB
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29