644 Wisconsin St

San Francisco, CA 94107

$2,195,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,208 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,363/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,511
• Tax + insurance: −$1,549
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,546
• Net cashflow: $-7,243/mo
• Annual: $-86,919/yr
• Cap rate: 2.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.14%
• DSCR: 0.37
• 1% rule: 0.34%
• Cash to close: $614,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $2.19M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-87k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $915k (58.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $736k (66.5% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.13M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $736k (66.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $121k of equity ($15k loan paydown + $106k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+18.9%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$194k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• At $7,363/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($183k/yr) (locally 1851% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 66% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.