3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,203 sqft ·
Built 1958
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 26 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,123/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$420
Tax + insurance
−$221
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$236
Net cashflow
$247/mo
Annual
$2,961/yr
Cap rate
9.99%
Cash-on-cash
13.22%
DSCR
1.59
1% rule
1.40%
Cash to close
$22,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $2k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#853 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, employment D.
Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.9% in Killeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QM1Q24DEPCK445
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29