45397 Englewood Way

California, MD 20619

$419,900D-

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,248 sqft · Built 2020 · Townhouse · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,972/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax + insurance: −$490
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-444/mo
• Annual: $-5,329/yr
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $117,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-444 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $341k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (29.2% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $297k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#127 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $323k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.