4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,672 sqft ·
Built 1925
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 41 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$13,025/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,299
Tax + insurance
−$1,170
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$2,735
Net cashflow
$5,821/mo
Annual
$69,857/yr
Cap rate
18.21%
Cash-on-cash
42.57%
DSCR
2.89
1% rule
2.07%
Cash to close
$176,120
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $629k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($70k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $629k).
It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($610k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $610k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#202 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
Ventnor City School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #266 of 472 in NJ (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Ventnor Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 304 students, 47% FRL); Ventnor Middle School (math 28% / reading 52%, grade F, #197 of 431 statewide, top 46%, 204 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $180k; list at $629k implies a 249% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $176k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 4.1% in Ventnor City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QNGJG1DW09R00E
· Data 13 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29