20211 Storrs Rd

Sackets Harbor, NY 13685

$251,900D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,619/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,321
• Tax + insurance: −$434
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-475/mo
• Annual: $-5,705/yr
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.09%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $70,532

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $252k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-475 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (33.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (35.7% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $162k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#419 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Sackets Harbor Central School District (rural): math 62% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #294 of 755 in NY (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.7% in Sackets Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.