1802 W Godfrey St

Pensacola, FL 32501

$272,900D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,177 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,038/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,431
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $5/mo
• Annual: $62/yr
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $76,412

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $273k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($62/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (25.3% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#53 in FL, #924 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C. A. Weis Elementary School (math 20% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,061 of 2,144 statewide, top 96%, 466 students, 93% FRL); Warrington Middle School (math 19% / reading 24%, grade F, #553 of 571 statewide, top 97%, 573 students, 87% FRL); Pensacola High School (math 29% / reading 50%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,229 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 58% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Escambia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $273k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.6% in Pensacola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,038/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 816% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.