2890 Twin Lake Rd

Lupton, MI 48635

$107,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,127/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$561
• Tax + insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $245/mo
• Annual: $2,940/yr
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.81%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $29,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $107k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $107k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $740 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#656 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• West Branch-Rose City Area Schools (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #306 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Ogemaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ogemaw County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.8% in Lupton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.