4 bd · 4.0 ba ·
2,496 sqft ·
Built 1955
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 148 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$12,234/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,928
Tax + insurance
−$875
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$2,569
Net cashflow
$4,862/mo
Annual
$58,341/yr
Cap rate
14.08%
Cash-on-cash
27.82%
DSCR
2.24
1% rule
1.63%
Cash to close
$209,720
Investor read
This is a 4 × 4-bed/4.0-bath units multifamily listed at $749k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($58k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $749k).
It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($659k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $659k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: D. W. Babcock Elementary (362 students, 93% FRL); Martin Luther King Jr. Technology Academy (469 students, 96% FRL); Grant Union High (2,040 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 76% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $440k; list at $749k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $210k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $12,234/mo this rent would consume 244% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 1877% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
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· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29