3311 Hazel Trl Unit H

Woodbury, MN 55129

$279,900D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,571 sqft · Built 2008 · Condo · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,337/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$388
• HOA: −$404
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-414/mo
• Annual: $-4,963/yr
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.33%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-414 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (16.5% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#6 in MN, #153 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• South Washington County School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #40 of 301 in MN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Ridge Elementary (math 76% / reading 74%, grade A, #31 of 857 statewide, top 4%, 788 students, 13% FRL); Lake Middle School (math 54% / reading 71%, grade B+, #18 of 258 statewide, top 7%, 1,145 students, 14% FRL); East Ridge High School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade B+, #13 of 471 statewide, top 3%, 2,021 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 14% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the South Washington County School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 358 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; list at $280k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Woodbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.