4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,650 sqft ·
Built 1985
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 34 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,640/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,150
Tax + insurance
−$728
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$764
Net cashflow
$-3/mo
Annual
$-31/yr
Cap rate
6.29%
Cash-on-cash
-0.03%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$114,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-31/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $410k (0.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $364k (11.2% below list).
It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($398k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $364k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
Amarillo ISD (urban): math 44% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #336 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Sleepy Hollow El (math 72% / reading 66%, grade A-, #168 of 4,322 statewide, top 4%, 517 students, 31% FRL); Bonham Middle (math 61% / reading 49%, grade B-, #248 of 1,662 statewide, top 15%, 867 students, 37% FRL); Amarillo H S (math 55% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 2,170 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 34% FRL vs 58% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 61% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Amarillo ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29