19124 La Gloria

Elmendorf, TX 78112

$179,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Pending · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,457/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-92/mo
• Annual: $-1,104/yr
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.19%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (19.0% below list).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $947 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-297 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,189 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harmony El (math 21% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 684 students, 75% FRL); East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 451 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.5% in Elmendorf — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.