3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,816 sqft ·
Built 2025
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 187 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,409/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,229
Tax + insurance
−$262
HOA
−$329
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$716
Net cashflow
$-127/mo
Annual
$-1,522/yr
Cap rate
5.93%
Cash-on-cash
-1.28%
DSCR
0.94
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$119,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $403k (5.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (19.8% below list).
It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $341k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Bonita Springs Elementary School (math 60% / reading 45%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 546 students, 61% FRL); Bonita Springs High School (math 34% / reading 49%, grade F, #284 of 667 statewide, top 43%, 1,543 students, 35% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 835 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 14067% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QR4BGKCGC0P1FD
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29