3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,524 sqft ·
Built 1930
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 18 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,195/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,468
Tax + insurance
−$273
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$461
Net cashflow
$-7/mo
Annual
$-90/yr
Cap rate
6.26%
Cash-on-cash
-0.11%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
0.78%
Cash to close
$78,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-90/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (0.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (21.6% below list).
It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $219k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#236 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
Chesapeake City Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #31 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Rena B. Wright Primary (271 students, 96% FRL); Oscar F. Smith High (math 63% / reading 75%, grade B, #170 of 319 statewide, top 55%, 2,291 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 28% district-wide (55 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 597 units permitted in Chesapeake city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Chesapeake County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $118k; list at $280k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.7% in Chesapeake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,195/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 1301% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QR87AEESB7GF2T
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29