139 Davis Rd

Arial, SC 29640

$130,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 690 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,242/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $222/mo
• Annual: $2,661/yr
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.31%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (4.5% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#173 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pickens 01 (rural): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #21 of 80 in SC (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pickens Elementary (math 34% / reading 36%, grade F, #339 of 597 statewide, top 57%, 498 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 42% district-wide (58 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 229 active listings in the ZIP; 1,440 units permitted in Pickens County in 2024 (245 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pickens County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $130k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.2% in Arial — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.