3 bd · 4.0 ba ·
1,784 sqft ·
Built 1978
· Townhouse
· Active
· 93 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$24,000/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$5,113
Tax + insurance
−$1,625
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$5,040
Net cashflow
$12,222/mo
Annual
$146,664/yr
Cap rate
21.34%
Cash-on-cash
53.72%
DSCR
3.39
1% rule
2.46%
Cash to close
$273,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath townhouse listed at $975k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $12k ($147k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($24k rent vs $975k).
It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($887k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $887k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $29k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#303 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
New Hanover County Schools (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #61 of 178 in NC (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Carolina Beach Elementary (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #249 of 1,410 statewide, top 20%, 431 students, 32% FRL); Charles P Murray Middle (math 59% / reading 59%, grade B, #54 of 475 statewide, top 12%, 882 students, 34% FRL); Eugene Ashley High (math 48% / reading 68%, grade C, #243 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,975 students, 34% FRL).
Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,581 units permitted in New Hanover County in 2024 (1,185 in 5+ unit buildings).
New Hanover County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $145k; list at $975k implies a 572% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $273k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 2.1% in Kure Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QRCN9WBTGMVMQB
· Data 6 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29