1451 Hillcrest St

Washington, PA 15301

$144,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Pending · 160 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,539/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$755
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $186/mo
• Annual: $2,230/yr
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.53%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $40,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $144k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $996 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#77 in PA, #558 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D-.
• Trinity Area SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #172 of 539 in PA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 489 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $144k implies a 256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.8% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.