4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,200 sqft ·
Built 1973
· Townhouse
· Active
· 21 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,381/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$524
Tax + insurance
−$180
HOA
−$21
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$500
Net cashflow
$1,156/mo
Annual
$13,872/yr
Cap rate
20.17%
Cash-on-cash
49.54%
DSCR
3.20
1% rule
2.38%
Cash to close
$28,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $100k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#118 in MD, #4,991 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F.
Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Deerfield Elementary (math 7% / reading 17%, grade F, #550 of 860 statewide, top 66%, 728 students, 78% FRL); Edgewood Middle (math 7% / reading 31%, grade F, #155 of 225 statewide, top 70%, 999 students, 72% FRL); Edgewood High (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #111 of 222 statewide, top 50%, 1,415 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 24% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 5.5% in Edgewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QRXN7BBQCEGSYN
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29