397 Brazey Rd

Monticello, GA 31064

$190,000B-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,721 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,949/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$330
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $213/mo
• Annual: $2,559/yr
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.81%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#16 in GA, #2,229 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment D+, commute F.
• Jasper County (rural): math 24% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #113 of 174 in GA (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jasper County Primary School (654 students, 66% FRL); Jasper County Middle School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 630 students, 58% FRL); Jasper County High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #68 of 424 statewide, top 17%, 725 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 183 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jasper County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $190k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 41% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.9% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.