208 E 44th #22

Garden City, ID 83714

$189,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Active · 250 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,188/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$315
• HOA: −$650
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-228/mo
• Annual: $-2,734/yr
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.17%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (17.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• It's been on market 250 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#11 in ID, #1,264 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime F.
• Boise Independent District (urban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #36 of 92 in ID (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whittier Elementary School (math 31% / reading 38%, grade F, #272 of 357 statewide, top 80%, 572 students, 99% FRL); Boise Senior High School (math 58% / reading 75%, grade B, #9 of 169 statewide, top 5%, 1,588 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 33% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 445 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,129 units permitted in Ada County in 2024 (414 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ada County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.5% in Garden City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 250 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.