10697 Carroll Wood Way

Sappington, MO 63128

$158,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · Built 1965 · Condo · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,688/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax + insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$323
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $21/mo
• Annual: $254/yr
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $44,240

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $158k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($254/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#34 in MO, #3,057 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lindbergh Schools (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #38 of 324 in MO (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Concord Elem. School (math 43% / reading 62%, grade C-, #226 of 1,115 statewide, top 21%, 552 students, 10% FRL); Robert H. Sperreng Middle (math 40% / reading 47%, grade D, #127 of 391 statewide, top 34%, 953 students, 14% FRL); Lindbergh Sr. High (math 56% / reading 70%, grade B-, #26 of 521 statewide, top 5%, 2,235 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 12% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $158k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.3% in Sappington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.