3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,056 sqft ·
Built 1960
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 23 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,574/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,044
Tax + insurance
−$332
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$330
Net cashflow
$-132/mo
Annual
$-1,585/yr
Cap rate
5.50%
Cash-on-cash
-2.84%
DSCR
0.87
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$55,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (9.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (20.9% below list).
It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $157k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#263 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Lacrosse Elementary (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 360 students, 89% FRL); Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 54% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QVW0NABK1WZK1J
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29