150 Joe Hale Dr Unit -

Johnson City, TN 37615

$450,000B-

None bd · 4.0 ba · 3,696 sqft · Built 1961 · MultiFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,451/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$356
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,145
• Net cashflow: $1,590/mo
• Annual: $19,082/yr
• Cap rate: 10.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.14%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive. Per door: $398/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $450k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($443k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $443k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#8 in TN, #3,349 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment F.
• Washington County (suburban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #54 of 139 in TN (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Boones Creek Elementary School (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #490 of 952 statewide, top 52%, 788 students, 0% FRL); Daniel Boone High School (math 23% / reading 46%, grade F, #41 of 332 statewide, top 15%, 1,211 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 41% district-wide (41 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,155 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (437 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.1% in Johnson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,451/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 278% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.