1121 Tarkiln Rd SE

Lancaster, OH 43130

$30,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,881 sqft · Built 1993 · Land · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,615/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $1,069/mo
• Annual: $12,825/yr
• Cap rate: 49.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 152.68%
• DSCR: 7.79
• 1% rule: 5.38%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#41 in OH, #423 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D.
• Berne Union Local (rural): math 63% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #321 of 802 in OH (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Berne Union Elementary School (reading 44%, 471 students, 0% FRL); Berne Union High School (378 students, 82% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 475 units permitted in Fairfield County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fairfield County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 30 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 49.0% vs local median 4.2% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.