734 Brookside Cir

Rogue River, OR 97537

$215,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,577/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-251/mo
• Annual: $-3,016/yr
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.01%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-251 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (26.7% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $158k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#111 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment D-.
• Rogue River SD 35 (other): math 30% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #129 of 183 in OR (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rogue River Elementary School (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #200 of 412 statewide, top 49%, 410 students, 93% FRL); Rogue River Junior/Senior High (math 5% / reading 30%, grade F, #137 of 143 statewide, top 96%, 357 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 52% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.5% in Rogue River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.