2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
672 sqft ·
Built 2005
· Other
· Pending
· 123 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,701/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$275
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$357
Net cashflow
$413/mo
Annual
$4,959/yr
Cap rate
10.90%
Cash-on-cash
16.45%
DSCR
1.73
1% rule
1.36%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#191 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
Johnson County (rural): math 27% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #69 of 139 in TN (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Roan Creek Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 345 students, 0% FRL); Johnson Co Middle School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #107 of 333 statewide, top 33%, 284 students, 0% FRL); Johnson Co High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #129 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 643 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 59% district-wide (59 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Johnson County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $40k; list at $125k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.1% in Mountain City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QX739M1NQ7P7AC
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29