3906 Mission Dr #4

Jacksonville, FL 32217

$79,500D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 845 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Pending · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,197/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$440
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-61/mo
• Annual: $-734/yr
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.30%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $22,260

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-734/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $69k (13.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $550 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: San Jose Elementary School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,709 of 2,144 statewide, top 81%, 779 students, 63% FRL); Alfred I. Dupont Middle School (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #536 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 641 students, 59% FRL); Samuel W. Wolfson High School (math 48% / reading 70%, grade C+, #113 of 667 statewide, top 17%, 922 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $80k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?