3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,322 sqft ·
Built 1959
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 12 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,391/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$362
Tax + insurance
−$281
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$292
Net cashflow
$456/mo
Annual
$5,470/yr
Cap rate
14.22%
Cash-on-cash
28.31%
DSCR
2.26
1% rule
2.02%
Cash to close
$19,320
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#491 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Collinsville CUSD 10 (suburban): math 14% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #465 of 620 in IL (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Collinsville High School (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #427 of 693 statewide, top 62%, 1,978 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $59k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 4.0% in Collinsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QXT2MZ7P97V0Q6
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29