4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,692 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 59 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,843/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,086
Tax + insurance
−$345
HOA
−$33
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$387
Net cashflow
$-7/mo
Annual
$-90/yr
Cap rate
6.25%
Cash-on-cash
-0.15%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$57,960
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $207k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-90/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (0.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (11.0% below list).
It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $184k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
Somerset ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #417 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 324 active listings in the ZIP; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QXVX73C8MVG9GY
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29