291 Vermont Ave

Newark, NJ 07111-7517

$749,000F

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,032 sqft · Built 1927 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,421/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,928
• Tax + insurance: −$2,119
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-4,924/mo
• Annual: $-59,082/yr
• Cap rate: -1.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -28.17%
• DSCR: -0.25
• 1% rule: 0.19%
• Cash to close: $209,720

Investor read

• This is a 8-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $749k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-59k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (78.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (81.0% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($727k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (81.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#343 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools D+, housing D+, crime F.
• Irvington Public School District (suburban): math 4% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #465 of 472 in NJ (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 3,364 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (2,551 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $525k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate -1.6% vs local median 3.0% in Newark — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 81% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?