12 Fernwood Dr

Gray, LA 70364

$90,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,678 sqft · Built 1983 · Other · Active · 428 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,493/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$546
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $162/mo
• Annual: $1,944/yr
• Cap rate: 14.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.03%
• DSCR: 2.25
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 428 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#222 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, schools B, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Terrebonne Parish (other): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 98 in LA (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 311 active listings in the ZIP; 300 units permitted in Terrebonne Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $61k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 3.4% in Gray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 428 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.