1430 Josephine St

Berkeley, CA 94703

$4,798,000C+

None bd · None ba · 12,288 sqft · Built 1960 · MultiFamily · Pending · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $64,815/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$25,161
• Tax + insurance: −$7,997
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$13,611
• Net cashflow: $18,046/mo
• Annual: $216,551/yr
• Cap rate: 10.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.12%
• DSCR: 1.72
• 1% rule: 1.35%
• Cash to close: $1,343,440

Investor read

• This is a 19 × 34-bed/19.0-bath units multifamily listed at $4.80M. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18k ($217k/yr) — positive. Per door: $950/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($65k rent vs $4.80M).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($4.51M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $4.51M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $33k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $144k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#74 in CA, #2,860 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Berkeley Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #175 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 53 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $482k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $1.34M cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 2.0% in Berkeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $64,815/mo this rent would consume 708% of the median local household income ($110k/yr) (locally 1402% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: Kitchen cabinets — Signs of wear and tear.
• Moderate: Bathroom tiles — Signs of wear and tear.
• Moderate: Exterior siding — Signs of wear and tear.
• Moderate: Carpeted floors — Signs of wear and tear.
• Moderate: Painted walls — Signs of chipping and wear.
• Moderate: Window frames — Signs of wear and tear.