451 E 10th St

Northampton, PA 18067

$209,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$329
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-126/mo
• Annual: $-1,516/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.58%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $58,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (21.4% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $165k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#226 in PA, #1,961 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Northampton Area SD (suburban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #153 of 539 in PA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Colonel John Siegfried El Sch (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #586 of 1,518 statewide, top 42%, 808 students, 51% FRL); Northampton Area Ms (math 24% / reading 46%, grade F, #322 of 512 statewide, top 64%, 1,256 students, 42% FRL); Northampton Area Hs (math 60% / reading 24%, grade F, #230 of 437 statewide, top 53%, 1,862 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 22% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.1% in Northampton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.