115 E Locust St

Mechanicsburg, PA 17055

$229,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · Built 1900 · Townhouse · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,611/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$279
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-207/mo
• Annual: $-2,484/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.87%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (29.7% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $161k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#372 in PA, #3,259 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Mechanicsburg Area SD (suburban): math 38% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #175 of 539 in PA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mechanicsburg Ms (math 21% / reading 60%, grade F, #248 of 512 statewide, top 50%, 1,047 students, 39% FRL); Mechanicsburg Area Shs (math 72% / reading 24%, grade D, #153 of 437 statewide, top 37%, 1,377 students, 33% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $229k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.7% in Mechanicsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.