1105 Walnut St

Jourdanton, TX 78026

$114,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 2000 · Townhouse · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$327
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $-140/mo
• Annual: $-1,674/yr
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.20%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $32,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $90k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (13.0% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $90k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#474 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jourdanton ISD (town): math 46% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #258 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jourdanton El (math 46% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 468 students, 60% FRL); Jourdanton H S (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 442 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: 164 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.5% in Jourdanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.