6137 Tuscony Cir

Jacksonville, FL 32277

$179,895C-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1974 · Townhouse · Active · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,590/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$301
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $11/mo
• Annual: $135/yr
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $50,371

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($135/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (11.6% below list).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fort Caroline Elementary School (math 36% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,773 of 2,144 statewide, top 83%, 515 students, 74% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); Terry Parker High School (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,353 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 49% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $180k implies a 350% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.