1017 Avenue D Ave

Bogalusa, LA 70427

$37,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 943 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,233/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax + insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $735/mo
• Annual: $8,815/yr
• Cap rate: 29.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.07%
• DSCR: 4.70
• 1% rule: 3.25%
• Cash to close: $10,612

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $38k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $735 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $36k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $262 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#273 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• City Of Bogalusa School District (town): math 4% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #96 of 98 in LA (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 87% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Washington Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 29.6% vs local median 6.0% in Bogalusa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.