7100 BLVD E Unit 14 D

Guttenberg, NJ 07093

$169,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 781 sqft · Built — · Condo · Under Contract · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,827/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$1,238
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $-172/mo
• Annual: $-2,068/yr
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.37%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $169k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#51 in NJ, #1,253 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Guttenberg School District (suburban): math 10% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #435 of 472 in NJ (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 259 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.3% in Guttenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,827/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 5546% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.