Swan 1599 NS Plan

Killeen, TX 76542

$200,000F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,599 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 314 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,647/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,265
• Tax + insurance: −$402
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-366/mo
• Annual: $-4,398/yr
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.51%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $67,555

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.7% below list).
• It's been on market 314 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#853 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Saegert El (math 33% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 954 students, 57% FRL); Charles E Patterson Middle (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 1,003 students, 56% FRL); C E Ellison H S (math 20% / reading 51%, grade F, #941 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 1,682 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 653 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 314 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.