3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,512 sqft ·
Built 2000
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 67 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,695/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,164
Tax + insurance
−$168
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$356
Net cashflow
$7/mo
Annual
$87/yr
Cap rate
6.33%
Cash-on-cash
0.14%
DSCR
1.01
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$62,160
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $222k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($87/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (23.6% below list).
It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $170k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#161 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Randolph County School System (rural): math 43% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #94 of 178 in NC (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Hopewell Elementary School (math 69% / reading 60%, grade B, #147 of 1,410 statewide, top 11%, 679 students, 50% FRL); Wheatmore High School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 677 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 43% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Randolph County School System average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 789 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).
Randolph County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $125k; list at $222k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Trinity — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-R2B0KKDS0NV7YH
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29