2907 W Ash St

Midway South, TX 78596

$155,500D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,218 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 141 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,285/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$815
• Tax + insurance: −$226
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-27/mo
• Annual: $-322/yr
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $43,540

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $156k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-322/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (17.4% below list).
• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $167 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-908 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,201 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Weslaco ISD (suburban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #705 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 708 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.