11558 Raft Rd

Jacksonville, FL 32218

$240,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 201 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,679/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$454
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-386/mo
• Annual: $-4,630/yr
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.89%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-386 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (28.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (30.0% below list).
• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 728 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.