36039 Sierra Linda

North Fork, CA 93669

$140,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $929/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $-165/mo
• Annual: $-1,984/yr
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.06%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (33.6% below list).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Chawanakee Unified (rural): math 26% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #876 of 1,400 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 1.6% in North Fork — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.