432 Ford

Ukiah, CA 95482

$339,999D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1980 · Townhouse · Coming Soon · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,633/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $30/mo
• Annual: $365/yr
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.38%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $95,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $340k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($365/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (22.6% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $263k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#425 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime D-.
• Ukiah Unified (town): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,018 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $340k implies a 536% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.0% in Ukiah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,633/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1349% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.