534 Shasta Dr

Lancaster, OH 43130

$155,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,281/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $-3/mo
• Annual: $-39/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-39/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (17.4% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $128k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#41 in OH, #423 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D.
• Lancaster City (town): math 38% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #504 of 656 in OH (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gorsuch West Elementary School (math 31% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,105 of 1,584 statewide, top 70%, 580 students, 73% FRL); General Sherman Junior High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade D, #477 of 654 statewide, top 74%, 707 students, 56% FRL); Lancaster High School (math 35% / reading 65%, grade D+, #384 of 781 statewide, top 49%, 1,848 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 475 units permitted in Fairfield County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fairfield County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.2% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.