798 Gage Rd

Newark Valley, NY 13827

$94,000A-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Active · 217 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,241/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$493
• Tax + insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $319/mo
• Annual: $3,833/yr
• Cap rate: 10.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.56%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $26,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $83k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($650 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#462 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Newark Valley Central School District (rural): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #466 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 139 units permitted in Tioga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tioga County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.