218 Fm 710

Ganado, TX 77962

$199,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,426/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$469
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-386/mo
• Annual: $-4,628/yr
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.31%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-386 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (34.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (28.3% below list).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#70 in TX, #2,570 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ganado ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #345 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP.
• Jackson County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.