44 Willowmere Ave

Riverside, CT 06878

$3,200,000C-

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,358 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $22,080/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16,781
• Tax + insurance: −$3,146
• HOA: −$83
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,637
• Net cashflow: $-2,567/mo
• Annual: $-30,804/yr
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.36%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $896,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $3.20M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.75M (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.21M (31.0% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($3.15M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.21M (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $255k of equity ($22k loan paydown + $233k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#60 in CT, #3,626 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Greenwich School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #12 of 153 in CT (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Riverside School (math 84% / reading 89%, grade A+, #4 of 553 statewide, top 1%, 435 students, 2% FRL); Greenwich High School (math 59% / reading 78%, grade B, #23 of 194 statewide, top 12%, 2,668 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$408k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.