405 N 7th St

Tonkawa, OK 74653

$102,500C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · Built 1926 · SingleFamily · Pending · 151 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,060/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$538
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $204/mo
• Annual: $2,453/yr
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.55%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $28,700

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $102k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $102k).
• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $90k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $709 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#99 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Tonkawa (town): math 16% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #179 of 270 in OK (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tonkawa Es (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #354 of 845 statewide, top 47%, 462 students, 0% FRL); Tonkawa Hs (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #96 of 447 statewide, top 26%, 216 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Kay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kay County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $102k implies a 308% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.