1590 Red Rock Rd

Branson West, MO 65656

$229,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,049/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$448
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $-820/mo
• Annual: $-9,840/yr
• Cap rate: 2.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.10%
• DSCR: 0.37
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-820 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (51.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (54.2% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (54.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#830 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, schools F.
• Reeds Spring R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #182 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?